American professor: Vučić's fall could turn Serbia towards the West, Kosovo remains the main test

American professor Daniel Serwer, from Johns Hopkins University, analyzes the defeat of Aleksandar Vučić and the victory of the Student List in Serbia, where he warns that political change will not automatically bring about a break with Russia and China. According to him, the main challenge of the new majority will be strengthening democracy, the fight against corruption and the stance towards Kosovo.

Aleksandar Vučić's defeat in Serbia's parliamentary elections could pave the way for the country's gradual orientation towards the West, but the political transformation will face significant obstacles. This is the assessment of American professor Daniel Serwer, who in an analysis published on his website sharply criticizes the Serbian president's governance and warns of the challenges that await the new parliamentary majority.

Serwer accuses Vučić of strengthening authoritarian practices, media control, corruption, and attempts to undermine Kosovo's statehood, while simultaneously maintaining relations with the United States and the European Union.

According to the American professor, Vučić initially presented himself as a politician oriented towards European integration, but then strengthened ties with Moscow and Beijing, using promises to the West to maintain political support.

“Then, it increasingly turned to Moscow and Beijing for weapons and technology, while continuing to keep Washington and Brussels waiting with promises of lithium and ammunition for Ukraine ,” Serwer writes.

He also criticizes the support that Vučić received from the West, despite the deterioration of democratic standards in Serbia. In his analysis, the professor also mentions the continuation of EU membership negotiations, while the Serbian government was accused of restricting media freedom and weakening institutions.

The Student List, from protest to political challenge
An important part of Serwer's analysis is devoted to the victory of the Student List, which managed to transform civic dissatisfaction into a political alternative in the face of a consolidated government.

According to him, the student movement initially focused on opposing violence, then on environmental issues and most recently on the fight against corruption. Its program includes the rule of law, media freedom, meritocracy, education, employment, housing and healthcare.

However, the professor warns that electoral victory does not automatically solve the problem of governance. The new MPs will face political structures that have long experience in parliamentary maneuvers and in the administration of power.

"Vučić's people, experienced in parliamentary procedures and political maneuvering, will undoubtedly do their best to make their job difficult," he writes.

According to Serwer, maintaining the unity of the new majority will be crucial for implementing its program and avoiding that the expectations created by the protests end in disappointment.

Kosovo, the most difficult test for the new government
One of the most sensitive issues of the political transition in Serbia remains foreign policy and, especially, the relationship with Kosovo.

Serwer notes that the students have not yet given clear signals about the direction they will take on this issue. He refers to the Kragujevac Memorandum, which reiterates Serbia's claim to sovereignty over Kosovo, raising questions about the possibility of a change in Belgrade's position.

However, the American professor sees opportunities for the new majority to seek the acceleration of European integration and improved relations with the United States.

For Kosovo, this is an element that needs to be closely monitored. A change of government in Serbia does not necessarily mean an immediate change in policy towards Pristina. The attitude of the new majority towards dialogue, recognition of the state reality of Kosovo and the agreements reached will be one of the main indicators of the direction that Belgrade will take.

Russia and China will not leave immediately
Despite expectations for a rapprochement with the West, Serwer does not foresee a quick separation of Serbia from Russia and China.

" The former still controls the Serbian security apparatus, which will need a deep lustration process. China provides a lot of investment, which Serbia will have to continue to welcome," he argues.

According to the professor, the most realistic scenario is a gradual orientation towards the West, not an immediate geopolitical shift. This would require a review of relations with Moscow and Beijing, without immediately severing the economic and security ties that Serbia has established with them.