Serbia, Albania and Kosovo facing the current US administration

With the midterm elections approaching and the polls not looking good at all, the US administration seems to be thinking about Balkan-style electoral gifts - while at the same time tolerating space for those who are undoing democracy and denying war crimes.

 Greetings from the East Coast, where this month has been particularly busy – from the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York, where everyone gets a chance to pose for photos and have their own stage to air their grievances (to the public in their own country), to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s official meeting with Donald Trump in Washington – a visit that, like the UNGA, was full of pomp and drab in terms of concrete results.

Domestically, the midterm elections are approaching and the campaign is starting to resemble more and more the ones we know from the Balkans. Trump is escalating his clash with the media that criticizes him, while, as another war, the one in Iran, makes Trump even more unpopular, he is returning to another Balkan political trick: when things get tough, he scatters taxpayers' money!

Trump has promised that, if Republicans retain their majority in Congress, every American adult will receive $5,000. However, such a measure would have to be approved by Capitol Hill, so it is still far from certain that Americans will actually receive this money – unlike Serbia, where the outgoing president distributes money from the state budget on the eve of elections, despite having no authority to do so.

While Balkan-style tactics are increasingly appearing in American politics, the Trump administration continues to focus on advancing its own interests, turning a blind eye to the erosion of democracy and the return of the 1990s past in the Balkans.

This was confirmed to some extent by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in his statements on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, when he said that, although Serbia may be "engaged in some issues that are potentially problematic and explosive" and that constitute international concern, the United States wants to deepen its strategic partnership with the Balkan state.

Silence for Dodik – and Mladic

 
Earlier this month, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Lawton briefed members of Congress on US policy in the region during a hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

While Lawton reiterated that the priorities are stability (ignoring domestic instabilities), advancing U.S. trade interests, and combating organized crime, members of Congress raised some tough questions. Both parties seemed concerned about the same issues: Why did the U.S. initiate a strategic dialogue with Serbia, while Belgrade is strengthening ties with Russia and China? Why were sanctions lifted on former Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik if he did not abandon his separatist rhetoric? Will peace in Kosovo be jeopardized if the administration implements its plan to reduce the number of Americans in the NATO-led peacekeeping mission, KFOR?

The answers were ambiguous. Lawton said the US wants to be Serbia’s “partner of choice,” even though Serbia’s energy company NIS remains Russian-owned and Belgrade is buying Chinese weapons and technology. He avoided a direct answer on whether he would support reinstating sanctions on Dodik because of his unwavering rhetoric and close ties to Moscow, an issue that was persistently raised by Democratic Congressman William Keating.

The congressman presented a report, “Pay for Play,” documenting how Dodik’s intense lobbying with companies linked to Trump led to the lifting of sanctions against him, as well as how a company linked to the US president received the contract to be the main operator of the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline in Bosnia. Lawton did not comment on these findings, but reiterated that KFOR remains vital to maintaining peace in Kosovo. Nothing new here.

However, if it weren't for this hearing, we might never have learned what the Trump administration thinks about the honors paid at the funeral of former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic, who was convicted of genocide in Srebrenica.

The State Department has been silent on the issue, unlike a small group of congressmen who described the behavior of Serbian authorities during the funeral as “deeply troubling.” Asked by a Democratic congresswoman from Nevada, Lawton insisted that the US also opposes the glorification of war criminals and that the tragedies and crimes of the 1990s should not be turned into political theater.

Given the situation on the ground, where both Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are mired in election campaigns, such a statement from Washington was long overdue. The silence has favored outgoing Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who told CNN that he did not attend Mladić's funeral, but that it was the biggest funeral in the last 50 years. In other words, he, Vučić, remains the West's safest bet.

On the other hand, the reaction to the Hague decision that convicted former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi of war crimes was immediate. On the same day, the State Department issued a statement saying that the US respects the decision of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers and called for restraint in rhetoric.

Controversies surrounding the decision on Thaçi

But Washington's stance on the issue contains a glaring contradiction. Richard Grenell, Trump's special envoy for special missions (and former envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue process), called the decision "scandalous" and described the judges and prosecutors as "left-wing idiots."

Grenell has long defended Thaçi and has sharply criticized prosecutor Jack Smith, who filed the indictment against the former Kosovo president. Grenell claims that, in doing so, Smith destroyed a potential diplomatic victory for Trump, as, according to him, Thaçi had headed to Washington in June 2020 to sign a normalization agreement with Serbia, but immediately returned to Kosovo as soon as the indictment was made public.

Smith is also being targeted because, after being appointed special counsel at the US Department of Justice, he filed two indictments against Trump – which were dismissed after Trump was re-elected. Grenell knows well that Trump does not forget those who have opposed him in the past and that public attacks on the president’s opponents are a good way to demonstrate loyalty – something that Trump particularly values.

Although the Trump administration, since taking office, has never reacted to domestic developments in Serbia, the issue came to the forefront thanks to Congressman Joe Wilson from South Carolina, who introduced the “Supporting the Rule of Law, Building Institutional Justice, and Accountability” (“SERBIJA”) act.

Despite being a Republican and having Trump’s support for his re-election this November, Wilson is challenging the administration’s policy with this bill, which would require the U.S. to suspend strategic dialogue if issues related to free and fair elections and strengthening ties with Russia, China and Iran are not addressed. The proposal enjoys bipartisan support, suggesting a broader consensus on the strategic objective: a country with which America cooperates should be oriented toward the West and have a legitimately elected government.

Wilson did not stop at the bill. He has continued to criticize President Vučić almost daily and has hinted that he will manipulate the early elections in Serbia, on October 25, using models applied by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The executive branch, however, seems unfazed by these accusations, while the State Department has said that it is “closely monitoring preparations for the elections.”

After Serbia’s last parliamentary elections, in December 2023, which international observers said were marred by irregularities, the US and EU jointly called on Belgrade to work towards implementing the recommendations of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights observation mission. It is hard to imagine Washington sending a similar message this time.

Meanwhile, a Senate hearing on the proposed candidates for ambassadors to Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina was held. Law professor Michael Young, nominated for Serbia, and retired general Ronald Johnson, nominated for Bosnia, presented their visions for their respective missions and answered questions from senators.

Both confirmed that they would work on the Trump administration's known priorities in the region and indicated that they intend to serve the president satisfactorily. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy asked an awkward question: Would they help a member of Trump's family promote his private investment if that investment would bring a direct financial benefit to the president's family? Both Young and Johnson responded that they considered it their duty to promote all American investments while serving as ambassadors.

At the end of this debate, Murphy, somewhat exasperated, said: “Gentlemen, the answer is no! It is not appropriate for the ambassador to lobby in favor of projects that will enrich the president or his family. That is a simple answer!”

Speaking of the Trump family's projects in the region, protests against the construction of a luxury tourist complex by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have continued in Albania. But Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, whose resignation the protesters are demanding, continues to defend Kushner and claims that the resort will bring benefits to Albanian citizens.

American investment was also discussed by Albanian Foreign Minister Ferit Hoxha and Trump’s special envoy for Global Partnerships, Paolo Zampolli, who visited Tirana this month. Zampolli is considered an unofficial broker for Trump administration deals. He once boasted that he had sold Uzbekistan “$20 billion worth of Boeing planes in 20 minutes.” Most recently, he posted on Instagram that he was “selling astronauts” and that countries that sign the Artemis Accords would have the opportunity to send their astronauts into space alongside their American counterparts.

Albania recently signed the Artemis Accords. Previously, Serbia was the only other Balkan country to sign the agreement. It is not yet clear how much this will cost.

While it sells joint projects in space, here on Earth Washington is also cutting aid to countries that have initiated “strategic dialogue” processes with the US. North Macedonia was among four European countries for which the US plans to cut military aid by a total of $52 million, redirecting this money to conservative-leaning countries in Latin America.

As Republicans struggle to maintain their majority in Congress in the midterm elections and Trump's low approval ratings are not helping, it is clear that Washington will not hesitate to occasionally step on its allies' toes. (BIRN)